A contract under stress
Signed during the first tenure of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, the agreement of 1996 1996 TREAT brought a solution to the India-Bangladesh relations by set clear guidelines for sharing the Ganges in the dry season. From March 1 to May 7, the 4 -day blocks were changed, which gave both countries, 000 35,3 cusecs of water. For a stream below 70,000 cusecs, this share was 50:50. When the flow was touched by 70,000 to 75,000 cusecs, Bangladesh got 35,000. For anything above, India took 40,000 and the rest of Bangladesh.
But that delicate balance is now in danger.
According to Economic Times reports, India is looking for an additional 30,000 to 35,000 cusecs in the same period to meet the growing needs of irrigation, maintaining the port of Kolkata and power power projects.
SAIDs cited by New Indian Express said that New Delhi is not motivated to expand the agreement. Instead, India has been pressurizing for ten to fifteen years less than three to fifteen years to get a place for periodic repetition.
“Before Pahalgam, we were motivated to expand this agreement for another thirty years, but then the situation changed drastically,” said SIID, senior official of the New Indian Express Ministry.
Water, power and example
The insecurity of Bangladesh is hard. As a solid delta nation, it is strongly dependent on the river systems that flow from India. The World Bank estimates that agriculture contributes more than 11 percent in GDP and about 35 percent of its employees work. It is about 6.5 percent of its land, so there is very little potential for agricultural expansion. Bangladesh is effectively “maximum” on his farm impact. Therefore, the efficient water-based framework enhances the relying. Result: The approximately depends on the flow of water.
Ganga and Tasta rivers are lifeline and any uncertainty about streams is at risk not only for farmers farmers but also for food security and comprehensive economy.
India’s posture reflects recent movements with Pakistan. On April 7, after the terrorist attack in Pahgum, India suspended a contract for the Indus water agreement that has been survived by 60 Since. Operation Sindur, Trade suspension and Kishnganga and Retail Hydropower Projects have been clear that the legal process surrounding projects: the water is no longer on the table.
Union Home Minister Amit Shah recently confirmed the Times of India that the Sindhu agreement would not be restored.
The shift is indirect in this shift. “The next year, due to the renewal of the renewal, India suspended the Indus water agreement can raise doubts about the commitment of sharing water with Bangladesh,” Water expert Nitin Manmohan told the Sunday Guardian.
Speaking to the Sunday Guardian, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defense Studies and Analysis North Sinha warned: “India has considered the traditionally water sharing system with its lower coast … The success of future negotiations will depend on the prevailing political environment.”
Chicken neck irony
Over the years, India’s strategic discomfort is around the Siliguri corridor, which connects to the main land in the northeast. The corridor is often depicted in Dhaka along with Muhammad Yunus, an interim consultant of Bangladesh, “Chicken Neck” in India.
During a four -day visit of Beijing, Yunus created a dispute by calling the region “Landlock” and Bangladesh as “the only parent of the ocean”.
“The seven sisters of India are called seven states in India … They have no way to reach the sea. Bangladesh, as the only parent of the ocean in this region, can be a great opportunity and the expansion of the Chinese economy,” suggests that China’s name in Bangladesh can be served as the name of China in Bangladesh.
Yunus declared, “You can go from Bangladesh to where you want. Ocean is our courtyard,” Yunus announced.
Now, the tables have turned.
Just 10 km from the Bangladesh border. In the distance, India controls the flow of water on the Ferkaka Barrage. Dhaka beat New Delhi with its so -called maritime benefits; India is now returning the preferences with its hydrological leverages.
Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma underlined his own insecurity in Bangladesh. “The first -kilometer North Bangladesh corridor is … any interruption can separate any interruption. Second is the 2 kil meter Chatgaon corridor … the only direct relationship between the economic and political capital of Bangladesh,” posted on Sarma X.
“Bangladesh, like India, is involved with two ‘chickens’ throat. I am just introducing geographical facts that can be forgotten.”
Transship Fallout
The next complication is the political upheaval in Dharak. Sheikh Hasina, who has been seen as a trusted partner of Delhi for a long time, was expelled in the middle of 2024 of power about two decades later. Her transfer, Muhammad Yunus, who became the chief adviser of Bangladesh’s interim government, changed the post of foreign policy of the country and brought it closer to China and Pakistan.
On April 20, 2025, India canceled the admission of the main transplant system of Bangladesh, which existed from 1. The decision has allowed Bangladeshi exporters to go to the land of the land in the third countries and third countries from June 1.
Designed to reduce logistic costs and boost export efficiency, especially for the serious read-made garments (RMG) industry of Bangladesh, Dhaka was enabled to pigBacking India’s infrastructure on the global market for widespread entry into the global market.
However, the central indirect tax and the Custom (CBIC) circular issued on April 8 released the facility. The Indian Foreign Ministry explained that the decision did not affect the export of transition from Indian territory to Nepal or Bhutan, but this decision has disrupted Dhaka’s big trade life.
The fall is urgent: shipping costs, long distribution timelines and low competitiveness, especially for Air Cargo, is operated by a key hub in Delhi’s Indira Gandhi International Airport.
According to the Daily Star, a record export of $ 2 billion for Bangladesh for Bangladesh has been recorded, and the RMG area has increased annually. The export of leather has increased by 6.44 per cent ($ 577.29 million) and cotton -related goods increased by 8.3.3 percent ($ 1.66 million).
China factor
China’s embrace of Dhaka is clear.
During a visit to China, Yunus signed a contract on hydrological data-seminar for the Yarlung Zhango-Jamuna (Brahmaputra) river system and started FTA discussions. According to a joint statement released after the official discussion, Dhaka and Beijing also agreed to launch a discussion on the “initial date” on the open trade agreement (FTA), which indicated the possible economic alignment that could resize regional trade dynamics.
A few years ago, an unknown incident took place at the Foreign Secretary level between Pakistan and Bangladesh. Pakistan’s Foreign Secretary Amna Baloch in Dhaka advised the Foreign Office (FOC) participating. In addition, a triple meeting was held on June 1 June between Bangladesh, Pakistan and China.
From the Indian border, 3 to 5 km from the Indian border. About 5 km from the distance and from the Siliguri corridor. India has a special concern for the revival of the Lalmonirhat Air Base in the World War II-E era.
According to the New Indian Express, Indian intelligence agencies look at this development as a “risk of gray zone” and mention potential double use for civil and military purposes, including surveillance and logistics operations, which can lead to direct compromise in India’s strategic “chicken neck”.
Another worrying concern, according to the Economic Times reports that the Chinese authorities have visited the Lalmonirhat site, and there is a concern for India’s most sensitive and important corridor due to the possibility of Beijing’s involvement in the potential redevelopment of the base.
Constantly trouble the tasty
The Testa river flowing from both countries is a long -term dispute. His 44 km in Bangladesh. Only 5 km in the distance. Still, it is the fourth largest river in the country and is important for irrigation in the north.
In 2, almost a final agreement was stalled by the opposition of the West Bengal government. That vacuum gave China a chance to step. According to the new Indian Express, China has given Bangladesh $ 1.8 billion loans, investments and grants.
India is afraid of long -term infrastructure and intelligence encroachment in the sensitive north.
Road ahead
According to the Ministry of Water powers, India and Bangladesh have 54 rivers.
The Ganga Agreement Section XII says that it is “renewable on the basis of mutual consent”. That section has become the pressure point of India. Once India is completely departed, whether it is rewritten or not, the result will reflect on how far the Dhaka has gone and how interested in controlling.
India keeps cards as upper repriners. Bangladesh, who faced political stream and strategic overlay, is pushing to protect its interests.
Water can be a shared resource, but today in South Asia, this is the only benefit for those who control the source.
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